You may have spotted a trend in magazines, social media, or on the runway. Whilst these are common methods to identify trends, it is becoming more challenging to differentiate a trend from a fad. Validating trends with data-backed insights before adoption allows you to optimise for commercial success. Learn how to validate the performance of a trend in this article.

Step 1: Analyse identified trend within a market

“tie dye” is a trend you may have seen a lot of recently. To determine if the trend is performing, you will need to establish a baseline for comparison. In this example, we are analysing the performance of the “tie dye” trend in the last 3 months by focusing on newly launched items.

Once you have identified the baseline trend performance for a category, you can add “tie dye” as a keyword to limit analysis to performance for tie dye products. 

From the above comparison, there were a few interesting observations:-

(i) “tie dye” dresses are trending up (+1.1) when compared to dresses as a whole (-0.8) which indicates that while the dress category may be less popular at the moment, tie dye dresses are showing an overall positive demand

(ii) activewear is trending up (+2.1) but is not as popular when paired with the “tie dye” trend (-4.4)

(iii) accessories show strong performance for both overall category trend and with “tie dye”. This indicates an opportunity to explore further.

Next, click into the thumbnail to access the trend chart.

We can see here that “tie dye” trend for Accessories is generally trending above the benchmark popularity score (ie. dotted line). Over time, it continues to trend further away from the benchmark indicating continuous strength and gaining popularity for the trend.

As you scroll down, you can also identify top retailers and brands that are driving this trend within the market.

Step 2: Validate trend for a market segment or retailer

Different retailers may target different market segments, so it is important to establish the goal of the research beforehand. You may be looking to

(i) establish the performance of the trend in a market,

(ii) analyse the performance of the trend in the context of a specific market segment; or

(iii) deciding on product placement opportunities for “tie dye” products.

The previous step was useful to address the first point. For the (ii) and (iii) point, it is important to validate the trend against specific retailers.

To further analyse performance by retailers, go to “Category Contribution” analysis under the “Product Analysis” tab in the Competitor Benchmarking module. Using the same set of filters in Step 1, add on the retailers and layer the analysis with “Sell-Out Rate %” to compare performance.

When deciding on where to stock “tie dye” products for optimum results, compare the sell-out rate % for the category across selected retailers. Out of all the retailers analysed, Nordstrom appears to have the highest sell-out rate which indicates a product placement opportunity.

Key Takeaway

Before adopting a trend, it is important to analyse the trend in the local market or narrow research to specific retailers for a target segment before you proceed with production for optimum results. Validating trends beforehand help brands minimise risks and optimise their assortment planning and distribution strategies.

Hope you found this article helpful! If you have any questions or would like to explore the Omnilytics dashboard further, feel free to reach out to your respective Client Success Manager.

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